Introduction
In this blog post, we will explore eight reasons why Erdogan is bound to lose even if he wins the election, meaning that his legitimacy, authority, and influence will be severely undermined.
Erdogan has been in charge for 20 years, but his support has dwindled as a result of the economy, natural disasters, human rights abuses, and poor foreign policy.
We’ll look at how each of these things affected Erdogan’s fall and what it means for Turkey’s future.
Erdogan’s health is deteriorating
- Erdogan’s health is one of the primary issues he has to deal with. After becoming ill on live television, he recently postponed several events. Additionally, he is charged with concealing a serious medical condition that could impair his capacity to lead.
- Erdogan’s health issues cast doubt on his capacity and tenacity as president. As there is no defined succession plan or process in place in the event of his incapacity or passing, they also contribute to uncertainty and instability in the political system.
- Erdogan’s health problems also cast doubt on his reputation as a powerful and charismatic leader who can triumph over any challenge. They reveal his frailties and vulnerabilities, which his adversaries and foes might take advantage of.
Erdogan’s party is losing support
- Another reason why Erdogan is bound to lose even if he wins is that his party, the AKP, is losing support among the electorate. In recent years, the AKP has had numerous defections and splits as some erstwhile partners have turned against Erdogan or established their parties.
- The AKP is also up against a potent opposition alliance made up of nationalist, conservative, and secular groups1. Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the leader of the opposition, has succeeded in bringing disparate and diverse groups together around a shared vision of democracy, justice, and reform.
- The AKP’s decline in popularity is a result of its failure to address the complaints and demands of different societal groups, including the young, the female, the Kurd, the Alevis, and the secularists. It also demonstrates its incapacity to change with Turkey’s evolving social and political climate.
Erdogan’s economy is collapsing
- Even if Erdogan wins, he will undoubtedly lose because of the collapse of his economy. A severe recession, high inflation, unemployment, and debt are all present in Turkey. The Turkish currency has lost more than half of its value since 2018. The situation has gotten worse as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak and the earthquakes in February.
- Erdogan’s economic policies have been widely criticized for being short-sighted, populist, and irresponsible. To boost growth, he has relied on cheap credit, building projects, and foreign investments, but he has ignored structural reforms, fiscal restraint, and monetary independence.
- Erdogan’s credibility and legitimacy among the electorate, who are seeing rising prices, diminishing earnings, and declining living conditions, have been weakened by his economic troubles. Additionally, they have heightened public unrest and unhappiness.
Erdogan’s democracy is eroding
- Even if he wins, Erdogan will still lose because his democracy is deteriorating. He has the media, civil society, and opposition. Additionally, he has weakened the political process, military, and judicial systems’ independence. Human rights organizations domestically and abroad have criticized him.
- Erdogan’s authoritarian impulses have transgressed democratic values and principles like accountability, tolerance, and pluralism. He centralized power in his own hands and crushed any resistance or criticism. He has also manipulated the Constitution and the laws to suit his interests and agenda.
- Many of Erdogan’s previous fans and allies who had hoped for a more liberal and inclusive Turkey are now at odds with him because of his democratic backsliding. Additionally, it has sparked opposition and protest from several social groups that call for greater justice and freedom.
Erdogan’s foreign policy is isolating
- Erdogan will fall short even if he wins because of his isolationist foreign policy, which is the fifth reason. He has alienated many of Turkey’s traditional allies, such as the US, the EU, and NATO. He has also sparked disputes with neighboring countries, such as Greece, Cyprus, Syria, and Iraq. He was unable to protect Turkey’s interests and regional sway.
- Erdogan’s foreign policy has been driven by a neo-Ottoman vision that seeks to revive Turkey’s imperial glory and Islamic identity. However, this vision has clashed with the realities and challenges of a complex and changing world. It has also ignored the interests and expectations of Turkey’s partners and friends.
Erdogan’s vision is outdated
- Even if he wins, Erdogan will still fall short because his vision is outmoded. His neo-Ottoman agenda aims to restore the imperial splendor and Islamic character of Turkey. However, many Turks who desire a modern, secular, and democratic nation do not share this vision. It also ignores the richness and complexity of Turkey’s society and culture.
- Erdogan’s vision has been contested by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic, whose alternative vision called for a liberal and secular state. In 2023, Turkey will observe the centennial of its republic, which will present an opportunity for the voters to choose between Erdogan’s conservative course and Ataturk’s modernist vision.
- Erdogan’s vision has also fallen short of the needs and reality of the twenty-first century. He has failed to address the issues of climate change, human rights, gender equality, and digital transformation. He has also lagged in innovation, education, and science.
Erdogan’s charisma is fading
- Even if he wins, Erdogan will still lose because his charisma is waning, which is the seventh reason. He has relied on his appeal and rhetoric to mobilize his supporters and rally his base. However, his remarks have become repetitive, polarizing, and incendiary. Additionally, he no longer understands the needs and realities of common people.
- Erdogan’s conceit and bigotry have overtaken his charisma. Any criticism or disagreement has been derided by him as treason or terrorism. He has also insulted and abused his opponents and rivals, both at home and abroad. He has shown no signs of humility or compromise.
- Erdogan’s exhaustion and overexposure have also diminished his charisma. He has been in control for too long and has become too familiar and predictable. He has also exhausted his political capital and reputation. He has nothing new or inspiring to offer.
Erdogan’s legacy is tarnished
- An eighth reason why Erdogan is sure to lose even if he wins is that his legacy is tainted. He has failed to deliver on his promises of stability, prosperity, and justice. He has also damaged Turkey’s reputation and image in the world. He has squandered his successes and possibilities as a leader.
- Erdogan’s legacy will be known for his dictatorship, corruption, and ineptitude. He will be held responsible for the economic crisis, the social polarization, and the democratic erosion that has plagued Turkey under his rule. He will also be held accountable for Turkey’s foreign policy’s isolation, strife, and instability.
- Erdogan’s legacy will be contrasted with the legacy of other Turkish presidents who have contributed to the development and progress of the country. He’ll be negatively compared to Ataturk, who founded the republic, Adnan Menderes, who established multiparty democracy, Turgut Ozal, who started economic liberalization, and Abdullah Gul, who supported EU integration.
Conclusion
- After looking at eight factors, we can say that even if Erdogan wins the election, his legitimacy, power, and influence will all be greatly diminished.
- Erdogan has lost the trust and support of many Turks who are fed up with his policies and performance. He now represents a risk to Turkey’s future.
- The election will be a historic opportunity for the Turkish people to choose a new direction for their country, one that is more democratic, prosperous, and peaceful.
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